Convex vs Concave Decisions — One-liner
Convex decisions = small, repeated efforts can produce outsized upside (low downside, high chance of optional big wins).
Concave decisions = single attempts have limited upside but high downside (one big loss can swamp small gains).
Flirting/social: know which choice is convex (test often, low-cost probes) and which is concave (high-risk public confessions) — then play the convex game and avoid unnecessary concave gambles.
1) Simple definitions & intuition
Convex situation: upside increases faster than downside as you invest more; diversification helps. Example social: hosting many micro-events → a few high-quality connections (compounding).
Concave situation: downside dominates if you invest more; a single mistake is costly. Example social: loudly humiliating confession in public group → large reputational risk.
Visual: convex = smile curve (benefit accelerates), concave = flattening/declining tail (more effort → diminishing returns + risk).
2) Why this matters (psychology + neuroscience)
Risk perception & loss aversion: amygdala + limbic system bias toward avoiding losses. Recognizing convex opportunities helps override fear with rational upside.
Dopamine learning: convex repeated small wins produce reinforcement and learning (dopamine bursts → habit formation).
PFC planning: convex thinking uses PFC to structure many reversible probes; concave mistakes often arise from impulsive limbic actions (public grand gestures).
Cognitive load: convex strategies reduce need for perfect prediction — you can sample and update, reducing anxiety.
Status & reputation networks: concave social errors can propagate (gossip, social cost) — brain’s social pain circuits (insula) react strongly to reputational loss.
3) Core principles / rules (non-negotiable)
1. Prefer convex moves when uncertain. Small, repeatable probes > single huge bet.
2. Identify concave risks and protect reputation. Don’t gamble social capital in public without high confidence.
3. Diversify social investments. Meet groups, host events, send many low-cost DMs.
4. Use reversibility. If an action is hard to undo, treat it as concave and be conservative.
5. Measure and update. Track outcomes and shift which options are convex/concave for you.
6. Ethics first. Convex ≠ manipulative; preserve consent and dignity.
4) How to tell convex vs concave in practice (quick checklist)
Before acting ask (5–12s): A) What are possible outcomes? (list 2–3)
B) Which outcome hurts reputation/time most? (estimate)
C) Is the action reversible? (Yes → likely convex probe)
D) Does small repeated version exist? (Yes → convex)
E) If wrong, is there quick repair? (No → treat concave)
Heuristic: If downside >> upside or irreversible, treat as concave. If small downside & repeated sampling possible, treat as convex.
5) Real examples (flirting & college scenarios)
Convex examples (play these often)
Sending many low-cost DMs with A/B choices.
Hosting short micro-events (45 min) to meet multiple people.
Offering helpful notes to classmates (reciprocity & social proof).
Short voice-note openers (low time cost, high signal).
Micro-yes strategy: ask for emoji/short confirmation then escalate.
Concave examples (avoid or approach cautiously)
Public grand confessions or dramatic declarations in group.
Long emotional essays on social feed early in relationship.
Public tests of jealousy or high-stakes manipulation.
Exposing too much vulnerability in first meetings (hard to undo).
Canceling plans publicly in a way that harms someone’s image.
6) Micro-protocols — what to do in real time
When you suspect convex opportunity (fast)
1. Choose a low-cost probe (10–20 min).
2. Use A/B choice to make saying yes easy.
3. Observe result; if positive, escalate once; if negative, move to next probe.
Example line: “Quick: coffee 15m after class or short rooftop Sat? (No pressure).”
When you suspect concave risk (fast)
1. Pause 10–30s; breathe.
2. Run a reversibility check: can I undo? If no, pick probe instead.
3. If you must act, pick private channel + soft wording + repair script.
Example cautious line: “This is a bit awkward to say publicly — can I message you privately?”
7) Stacking strategies: make convex stacks
Combine small moves to create compounding advantage:
Batch → Sample → Scale: host event → identify 3 warm people → 1:1 follow-ups.
Micro-value + Reciprocity loop: share note → micro-thanks → invite → meet.
Time Arbitrage + Convex: run weekend micro-event when others undervalue their weekend; high attendance low cost.
8) Scripts & ready lines (copy-paste, tagged)
Convex (low-risk probes)
1. “Quick: coffee 15m after class or rooftop Sat 4? (No pressure).” [A/B]
2. “I’m sharing my 1-page notes with 2 people — want them now or after class?” [Scarcity + low cost]
3. “Short test — 10-min study swap? If it’s cool, we’ll plan more.” [Reversible]
4. “Hosting a 45-min focused sprint Thu — want a spot?” [Event leverage]
5. “Voice note or text — which works for a quick question?” [Ease choice]
Concave (repair / safe)
6. “That came off weird — my bad. Can I clarify privately?” [Repair]
7. “I don’t like making big statements publicly — can we talk one-on-one?” [Private channel]
8. “I may be misreading — if this is awkward, I’ll step back.” [Exit + dignity]
Mixed (smart escalation)
9. “I’ll test a quick 15min chat; if it clicks, we plan a longer meet.” [Probe → escalate]
10. “Two options: short study group or 1:1 coffee. Which helps more?” [Dual-leverage]
9) Drills & practice (Beginner → Advanced)
Beginner (Days 1–14) — Habitize convexity
Daily 10 probes: send 10 low-cost micro-invites/DMs using A/B choices. Log replies.
Reversibility check drill: before any emotionally loaded action, ask: reversible? If no, delay.
Intermediate (Days 15–45) — Measure & diversify
Host 1 micro-event (45 min). Track contacts/hour & follow-ups.
Probe portfolio: maintain a “live list” of 15 low-cost probes to rotate weekly.
Record outcomes: conversion rates, comfort scores.
Advanced (Days 46–90) — Optimize & design mechanisms
Mechanism design: set up recurring micro-events that make cooperation (meeting) the dominant strategy.
Portfolio optimization: allocate weekly time across probes based on ROI (contacts/hour × value).
Stress-test concave moves: map 3 high-risk actions, run pre-mortem, design repair scripts.
10) KPIs to track (simple sheet)
Columns: date | action type (probe/event/concave ask) | time spent | responses | conversion to meet | comfort score | follow-up outcome
Key metrics:
Probe success rate (% probes → positive reply). Aim 25–40%.
Contacts/hour (events): target ≥3 quality interactions/hour.
Time-per-conversion: reduce over time.
Concave damage incidents: count mistakes needing repair — aim zero.
Reversibility %: % of actions that were reversible (higher = safer).
11) Pitfalls & how to avoid
Over-probing spamming: too many probes too similar → fatigue. Vary content & personalize.
False convexity: something looks low-cost but has hidden social cost (e.g., DM that invites gossip). Always include reputational check.
Underestimating concave loss: public errors compound via gossip — never gamble public reputation lightly.
Analysis paralysis: don’t over-model; use fast heuristics (5–12s).
Ethical slippage: convex advantage shouldn’t be used to manipulate; always preserve consent.
12) Ethics & boundaries (non-negotiable)
Convex strategy is for mutual value creation. If a tactic benefits you but harms someone emotionally, it's unethical.
Protect vulnerable people. Avoid deliberate intermittent reinforcement or emotional gambits.
If a probe misfires, repair quickly and genuinely. Respect “no” as final without pressure.
13) 30/60/90-day mastery plan (concise)
30 days — Habit + sampling
Days 1–7: 10 low-cost probes/day (A/B invites). Log outcomes.
Days 8–15: host one micro-event (45 min). Measure contacts/hour.
Days 16–30: build 25-line probe bank and 10 repair scripts.
60 days — Measure & optimize
Weekly KPI review: adjust top probes to maximize conversion/time ratio.
Design 3 convex stacks (event → follow-up → 1:1).
Reduce time-per-conversion by 20%.
90 days — Scale & systemize
Run repeatable micro-event every 2 weeks.
Create personal EV/convex template bank with default probabilities & time values.
Mentor a friend to run probes (teaches and scales behavior).
14) Quick cheat-sheet (memorize)
If reversible + low downside → PROBE (convex).
If irreversible + high reputational cost → CAUTIOUS (concave).
Use A/B choices, timeboxes, group events to multiply ROI.
Repair fast if misread.
One-liner: “Do many small, low-cost experiments. Avoid single, hard-to-undo bets.”
15) 20 Ready-to-use convex lines (copy-paste)
1. “Quick: coffee 15m after class or rooftop Sat 4? (No pressure)”
2. “I’ll share my 1-page notes — now or after class?”
3. “Short 10-min study swap? If it clicks, we plan more.”
4. “A few of us are doing a 45-min sprint — want a spot?”
5. “Voice note or text — which is easier for you?”
6. “I can save you a seat — 4pm or 4:30?”
7. “I’m testing a new cafe — 15m now or Sat 5?”
8. “If you’re busy, say so — otherwise Sat 3?”
9. “I’ll send the short version now; full later — prefer?”
10. “Quick favor — 2 lines? If yes, I’ll send details.”
11. “I’ll bring the notes next time — prefer paper or photo?”
12. “Small playlist swap this weekend — join?”
13. “I’ll be at library steps 4–4:20 — pop by if free.”
14. “Short honest Q: want to continue this over coffee?”
15. “I don’t do vague plans — 20m tomorrow or Sunday?”
16. “Hosting a mini-game night — limited seats. Want in?”
17. “I’ll check calendars and propose two slots — which is better?”
18. “Short test, 15m — if it’s good we continue.”
19. “If this feels rushed, we can reschedule — which day?”
20. “I’ll message tomorrow with a plan — want me to?”
16) Example pre-mortem (use before concave moves)
Action: public confession in class group chat.
Ask: What could go wrong? (embarrassment, gossip, reputation)
Probability & impact: list top 3.
Fixes: move to private, probe first, prepare repair script.
Decision: if downside large → don’t do publicly.
17) Final mindset (Ved, INTJ edge)
You’re a systems thinker. Use convexity as your default: run many small experiments, measure, compound winners. Treat concave moments like precious assets: plan, pre-mortem, and protect them. Over months, small convex moves accumulate into real influence, rapport, and options — without burning reputation. Be bold, but smart and ethical.
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